Quickly creating an issue for this; proper issue summary will follow.
https://www.drupal.org/docs/8/upgrade/upgrade-using-web-browser#pre-upgr...
If the database credentials to your source database are correct, the upgrade review page will appear as illustrated in the screenshot below. This page shows a summary of the upgrade status for all installed modules on the old site.
Latest iterations use this help text instead:
The new site is missing modules corresponding to the old site's modules. Unless they are installed prior to the upgrade, configuration and/or content needed by them will not be available on your new site. Read the checklist to help decide what to do.

Recent comments
Hi ian, so, in your case all the other admin pages work fine, including the status page, only admin/reports/updates fails? But you can access admin/reports? Weird... I...
Update Report thows "Access denied You are not authorized to access this page."
The File (Field) Paths module should be able to move existing files. I've not tested it, but the module description says: Retroactive updates - rename and/or move...
Moving from /files into subdirectories
Yes indeed. We are exploring a few other more costly options, but as we are a low-resource start-up, we could save a lot of money by integrating Backdrop, CiviCRM and Ubercart for our membership...
UberPOS for Backdrop?