Maybe I have an unhealthy view of all things tech but in my opinion, things are changing way too quickly and way too frequently for anything to enjoy a long life for very long. This is bad for society in full but what this means for any CMS is that it's likely going to undergo major changes after a few years, possibly die, or else, it's eventually going to be under a lock-and-key SaaS model where you'll be prevented from editing things like PHP files, accessing databases, etc. Security and privacy issues aside, and in my opinion, this is the biggest problem in today's tech world: it's on a restrictive trend of being used to take things away from people.
Again, I could just have an unhealthy view of things, and if I do, I apologize. I don't mean to be a downer here... It's just that I've seen this sort of thing happen too many times to not believe it. Every vendor I work with at my day job is trying their hardest to steer towards SaaS models, and in their defense, I can't really blame them because I'm sure it's more advantageous and or financially viable to sustain. However, it sure sucks for people like me who love to download and develop on their own without restrictions. In all honestly, I think this is the path that Drupal is taking and I do believe it will lead to its downfall, especially if you take into consideration everything that Acquia seems to be doing. And I completely agree with oadaeh. Drupal 8 is a complete nightmare, especially when compared to what it was like to use Drupal 7. I can't wrap my head around scenarios where a given team of people would lobby for what it's become unless they work within parameters that go way beyond standard non-forceful maintainability situations. But even then, what's worse? Accommodating the demands of the few insane teams with insane requirements that merit the use of those forced tool sets like Composer et al or marginalizing the majority of people that made the Drupal community what it used to be? Maybe this is where the enterprise reputation comes from? Maybe accommodating those bigger players, bigger teams, etc. means more return on someone's investment? I have no clue...
All I know is that people usually avoid products or services that forces them to do things using specific ways that require training just to get started. It's like forcing someone to be a Mandarin interpreter just because they know how to speak English. I think Drupal 8 did that to many people and I'm of the impression that any system that makes things harder to do will eventually buckle under its own weight. I'm also betting that it leads to Drupal's demise unless they pull a hat trick and fix the nonsense revolving around Composer at least. I know they had some people working on a solution to it but I'm not sure where they are with it today.
I doubt anyone knows what the future holds but I know I'm not digging it right now and I hope things change, which is why I'm leaning towards moving to Backdrop for my next project as it's not some sort of restricted SaaS system and it seems to be showing signs of increased adoption as more and more people are looking for a non-Drupal escape route.
(Side note: I work at a state university that uses Drupal 7 for the entire campus. Rumor has it we might be getting away from Drupal after the main team behind the implementation has seen what Drupal 8 has introduced. Kind of makes me sad.)